Universitatea Națională de Cercetare, Moscova, Federația Rusă / Higher School of Economics, National Research University, Moscow, Russian Federation
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The Human Capital of the Kurdish Region of Iraq. Kurdish Returnee(s) as a Possible Agent for a State-Building Process Solution
The region of Iraqi Kurdistan (KRI) has undergone to a great change in the economic and social aspects in the last 10 years, the reason and the determinants that brought this modifications has been slightly explored by past scholars. One of the new aspect that touched the region has been the increasing number of returnees, which started after a specific date, the 2013, year of the economic boom in the KRI. This article analyzes how in the region of Iraqi Kurdistan, the improvement of the economic sectors and number of returnees are interconnected, and how when these two data grow, the condition of quasi-state and independence (mainly economic) from the central government also increases. While, when these two data fall, the condition of quasi-state and the conflictual condition with Baghdad stabilized, transforming the situation into a prolonged conflict. For this research four key factors have been analyzed in the period from 2013 till mid-2017: 1) number of returnees, 2) economic growth, 3) business in the energy sector and 4) quasi-state condition. The peculiarity of this article is that thanks to this specific analysis we can understand why and when the KRI reached an higher level of independence from the Iraqi state and why and how this dependence failed. In this article we can see how the condition of quasi-state stopped to improve not because of the September Referendum (which is not mentioned in the study because the time frame detected do not take it into consideration), but because the Kurdish Regional Government made a decisional mistake regarding its economic vision. The results helps us in obtaining a more detailed idea of how the Iraqi Kurds reality can change based on a triadic model: returnees, economic investments and quasi-state condition.
Keywords: Iraqi Kurdistan, returnees, economy, actors, quasi-state, human capital.